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26 May 2021

Special: Amazon Unbound (with Brad Stone)

4Frameworks
15Insights

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Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 2

Myth Buster

The myth that Bezos ignores competitors

Founders routinely cite Bezos to justify ignoring rivals. Stone calls the public line theatre. Bezos studied Flipkart's methods on the ground in India in 2014 and staged his own splash the day after their Big Billion Day. Prime Now was authorised as a response to Google Express launching in Seattle and to Instacart's fundraising rounds, and press stories about rivals routinely triggered internal responses.

  • The customer-obsession line is a leadership principle, not a description
  • Bezos studied Flipkart's methods first-hand in India in 2014
  • Prime Now was a response to Google Express and Instacart
  • A newspaper story about a rival could trigger a response
  • Stone does not hold it against them — he calls it good business

“Of course we pay attention to them, but we we study them, but we just don't obsess over them.”

“the idea that they've got a higher ideal that puts them above or beyond focusing on competitors is definitely not true”

#competition#amazon#bezos#myths
Myth Buster

Amazon A/B tested curation against chaos — chaos won

Amazon tested a curated, orderly selection of branded items at high prices against a disorderly selection of unbranded products at low prices with extensive selection and even low quality. Customers gravitated to the chaos. Because the corporate compass points at what customers want, that result licensed the marketplace strategy and everything downstream of it, including the seller backlash.

  • The test pitted branded curation against unbranded selection and price
  • Customers chose the disorderly, cheaper, larger selection
  • Customer preference is the deciding input at Amazon
  • Stone accepts the result was genuinely good for consumers
  • The same result created the conditions for counterfeits and fraud

“actually, customers still gravitate to the chaos and the large selection of the low prices”

“the corporate compass at Amazon is always pointed to what customers want”

#merchandising#customer behaviour#marketplace#ab testing

Explainer· 3

Explainer

Where the 'Jeff bots' label actually came from

Stone dropped the term for the second book, partly because executives had taken it personally and it surfaced in a one-star review. The original observation was narrower than people assumed: Bezos deflected difficult questions effortlessly in interviews, and Stone noticed executives such as Steve Kessel evading questions with an identical method. The point was a shared public-speaking technique, not cloned personalities.

  • The phrase was dropped in Amazon Unbound to let the book stand fresh
  • Executives took it personally and it appeared in a one-star review
  • The origin was Bezos's effortless evasion of hard questions
  • Steve Kessel used the same evasion method
  • Stone says he made the same point in the new book without the label

“I think what I originally was riffing on with that term was how he so effortlessly eluded difficult questions back when he gave interviews.”

“they were just so all so skilled in the same exact way of speaking publicly and not saying anything”

#amazon#culture#media training#executives
Explainer

Advertising: the gold mine in Amazon's backyard

Stone titled the advertising chapter 'the gold mine in the backyard' because the business was already there and Amazon effectively just turned it on. At the time of recording it was running around six billion dollars a quarter at roughly full margin. More content, including the ad-supported service sitting alongside Prime Video, enlarges the video ad component and feeds back into the central retail flywheel.

  • The chapter title frames advertising as an asset already owned
  • Roughly $6bn a quarter at near-100% margin at the time
  • An ad-supported streaming service sits alongside Prime Video
  • More content directly grows the video ad component
  • The business is valuable standalone and as a retail driver

“in the book I call it that chapter, the gold mine in the backyard, because it was there and they kind of turned it on”

“It's a six billion dollar a quarter business that's like a hundred percent margin.”

#advertising#amazon#margins#monetization
Explainer

How Amazon globalised the marketplace, and who paid for it

Amazon's mid-2010s growth reacceleration came from opening the marketplace to cross-border sellers, inspired by AliExpress and by Wish.com's geographic arbitrage. Amazon translated listings from Mandarin, made signup self-service, aggregated product at ports and stored it in its own fulfilment centres. Great for consumers and revenue; Western sellers Amazon had once celebrated in shareholder letters were left competing against manufacturers with lower cost structures.

  • AliExpress and Wish.com were the explicit inspirations
  • Friction for Chinese sellers selling into the West was removed
  • Translation, self-service signup, port aggregation, in-house storage
  • Sellers previously named in Bezos shareholder letters became disgruntled
  • Counterfeits and paid reviews followed from algorithmic, low-curation scaling

“they open up marketplace, they basically reduce all the friction to selling from China to the rest of the world”

“I feel like I was invited for Thanksgiving dinner and I was the turkey”

#marketplace#third-party sellers#china#growth

Story· 7

Story

Why The Everything Store needed a sequel

Stone started interviewing for the second book in 2017, before HQ2, the tabloid saga, the antitrust wave and the pandemic. The trigger was that Alexa had changed the company, the transportation business had started, and the market cap had run from roughly $120bn to $800bn while he was still on the road talking about the old book. Amazon has added over a trillion and a half dollars of market cap since 2013.

  • Reporting began in 2017, before HQ2 and the tabloid story broke
  • Market cap ran from about $120bn at the first book to roughly $800bn
  • Alexa, logistics and a global marketplace were all new since 2013
  • AWS was a cipher in 2013; financials were only revealed in 2015
  • The pandemic became the ending that encapsulated the whole thesis

“So a 120 billion dollar market cap was at the end of 2017, probably around an 800 billion dollar market cap.”

“and that I was still on the road doing talks about Amazon about the everything store, but the story had changed”

#amazon#book writing#market cap#journalism
Story

Reporting a book on Amazon without ever getting Bezos

Amazon was receptive when approached in 2017-18, assigned a PR person, and eventually offered access to anyone at the company while deferring on Bezos until the end. He never got the interview. Stone argues the book did not suffer: Bezos is so disciplined that his stories are polished stones Stone could recite himself, and the trade-off bought unusual access to the S-team instead.

  • Amazon seemed to be anticipating that someone would update the first book
  • Access to any executive was granted; Bezos was deferred and never delivered
  • Bezos has avoided substantive journalist interviews for years
  • His anecdotes are rehearsed to the point of being predictable
  • S-team access, including Dave Clark, was the compensating gain

“they would give me access to anyone I wanted to talk to at the company, and they would see about Bezos toward the end”

“He's incredibly disciplined. He tells the same stories. They're like polished little stones that he's crafted over the years.”

#access journalism#amazon#bezos#pr
Story

Dave Clark had Amazon sue the best man at his wedding

Clark rose through operations and fulfilment, built Amazon Logistics, and became CEO of the retail business. One of his first bosses became his closest friend and the best man at his wedding; Clark was later promoted over him, and when the man left for Target, Clark had Amazon sue him. They never spoke again. Stone reads it as Bezos's ideals reproduced in an executive who never founded anything.

  • Clark built Amazon Logistics and now runs the retail business
  • His mentor and best man left for Target and was sued
  • The two never spoke again
  • Stone frames it as company-over-everything with little empathy
  • Consensus building is subjugated to the customer and the right answer

“And then he gets promoted over that guy.”

“And right there, encapsulated perfectly is Amazon's ruthless, relentless, business focused, competitive mindset where relationships and empathy don't really factor into it.”

#amazon#culture#leadership#dave clark
Story

Campfire: the secret conference Amazon quietly paid for

Since 2010 Bezos hosted a private annual gathering, first in Santa Fe among the literary elite and later in Santa Barbara among Hollywood. Guests are flown in on private jets with families, given swag and hotel rooms, children get individual counsellors, and a whole hotel and beach club is rented. Stone assumed Bezos paid personally because it is so unfrugal; his reporting found Amazon pays for it.

  • Started 2010 in Santa Fe, migrated to Santa Barbara and Hollywood
  • Described as Sun Valley crossed with TED plus a beach club
  • Guests flown privately, families invited, kids given counsellors
  • Amazon, not Bezos personally, funds it
  • Bezos called it the best part of his year

“It's like Sun Valley, the Allen and Company conference.”

“But in fact, as I looked into it, Amazon pays for it.”

#amazon#bezos#hollywood#networking
Story

Copperfield: Amazon's failed attempt to clone Instacart

Part of the original Prime Now effort, codenamed Copperfield, tried to syndicate offline grocers and use their shelves as fulfilment centres with contract delivery — Instacart's model. No grocer would work with Amazon, partly because Amazon Fresh was already running in Seattle and looked like a mortal threat. Whole Foods said no in 2015, which shaped the relationship that later produced the acquisition.

  • Copperfield aimed to use third-party grocery shelves as fulfilment
  • No grocery chain would partner with Amazon
  • Amazon Fresh made Amazon a threat and a suitor simultaneously
  • Instacart's advantage was being a neutral technology platform
  • Whole Foods declined in 2015, before the later deal

“And what they found when they tried to emulate Instacart was that no grocery store was going to work with Amazon.”

“they even went to Whole Foods back in 2015 and got told no”

#grocery#instacart#prime now#partnerships
Story

India and Mexico: two very different expansion stories

Stone thinks Amazon built a big but probably still unprofitable business in India against a nationalist political climate that restricted it to a pure marketplace, quoting Bezos that the future is the US, China and India and Amazon must win two of three. In Mexico, Amazon launched deliberately without Google search advertising, found its acquisition numbers upside down using billboards, and turned Google back on.

  • India is a large business, likely still loss-making, politically constrained
  • Flipkart selling to Walmart forfeited the homegrown-champion position
  • Bezos: succeed in two of the US, China and India
  • Mexico launched without search advertising and the economics broke
  • The experiment exposed how dependent Amazon was on Google

“the future of the world is the United States, China, and India, we need to succeed in two out of three”

“And so they launch in Mexico without uh search advertising, and it doesn't work.”

#india#mexico#international#google
Story

The explicit photo at the centre of the saga never existed

Stone's newest finding in the tabloid chapter is that the photograph everyone was fighting over was not real. What the tabloid had was an image Michael Sanchez had taken from an escort website and passed off as an explicit photo of the richest man in the world. Court filings showed the actual leak came from the brother, while the question of a Saudi phone hack remains genuinely unresolved.

  • All parties were battling over a photograph that did not exist
  • The image came from an escort website, not from Bezos
  • Court evidence pointed to the brother as the leak source
  • The alleged Saudi hack is separate from the tabloid story
  • Cybersecurity experts remain sceptical of the hacking study

“And the fact that they never had it, what they had was a photograph that Michael Sanchez had taken from an escort website and passed…”

“In retrospect, all of these parties were battling over a photograph that actually didn't exist.”

#bezos#tabloid#investigation#media

Q&A· 1

Q&A

What Amazon is missing, and what it should drop

Asked to name a gap and a business to exit, Stone picks physical grocery as the opportunity Amazon was late to, arguing that a decade-long, extremely expensive pursuit of cashierless store technology slowed a bigger move into supermarkets. For what to drop, he points to selling image recognition to police and government, already suspended, and suggests abandoning it outright.

  • Hard to name gaps in a company already doing almost everything
  • The Go store was possibly Amazon's biggest single capital investment
  • Bypassing the cashier may not be the real customer pain point
  • Perfecting the tech delayed serious entry into physical retail
  • Image recognition sales to police should be abandoned, not just suspended

“I just feel like perfecting that, which has been a super expensive 10 year plus process has slowed them down when it comes to entering…”

“There's just deep societal discomfort about the bias in those algorithms and the way in which police authorities have historically used them.”

#grocery#amazon go#image recognition#strategy

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway

The occupational hazard of writing books about live companies

Stone describes book-writing about tech companies as jumping onto a moving train. With The Upstarts he jumped, the train moved, and he landed on the tracks — the post alleging a discriminatory culture at Uber appeared roughly a month after publication, and he added a chapter for the paperback a year later. With Amazon Unbound he got the opposite luck: Bezos announced his CEO exit in time to make the book.

  • A book takes two to three years while the subject keeps changing
  • The Upstarts was overtaken by the Uber culture story a month after release
  • He added a chapter for the paperback a year later
  • Bezos's CEO exit landing before publication saved Amazon Unbound
  • Timing risk is structural, not a reporting failure

“I just sometimes think about it as jumping onto a train.”

“I jumped and the train moved and I fell onto the tracks because it was like a month after that book came out.”

#journalism#publishing#timing#risk
Takeaway

Amazon's invention culture still runs through one person

Despite the rhetoric of decentralised inventive teams, Stone finds the biggest ideas start with Bezos and survive on his sponsorship — the Alexa email, and walking out of a meeting until the team invented a faster way to collect data. He questions whether Jassy can fire off new business ideas the same way, and notes that founder status buys leeway from investors that a successor CEO will not get.

  • Big ideas trace back to a Bezos email plus maniacal sponsorship
  • He inspired and terrified teams into heroic feats
  • Willingness to be publicly humiliated is part of the process
  • The Fire Phone humiliation preceded the Alexa launch
  • Founder leeway with investors does not transfer to a successor

“when you peel back some of the biggest ideas at Amazon, it tends to start with an idea from Bezos”

“One theme in the book, I think, is is Bezos is willing to be embarrassed, right?”

#innovation#succession#bezos#founders