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11 May 2019

The Uber IPO

3Frameworks
13Insights

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The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 1

Myth Buster2:15:30

Why 20% of Uber's Valuation Isn't Actually Uber

A significant chunk of Uber's market cap comes from minority equity stakes in Didi, Yandex Taxi, and Grab, not from its own ride-sharing or delivery operations.

  • Uber holds roughly 15% of Didi, 38% of Yandex Taxi, and 23% of Grab, worth about $18B combined.
  • These stakes function like a holding company and shouldn't be valued the same as a fully-owned operating business.
  • This mirrors the valuation complexity discussed in Acquired's earlier Altaba/Yahoo-Alibaba episode.

“Twenty percent of the value of this company is actually a holding company.”

Ben Gilbert · 2:15:30
#valuation#holding company#Didi#Grab#Yandex

Explainer· 1

Explainer1:28:30

How Peer-to-Peer Ride-Sharing Broke Uber's Beautiful Unit Economics

Sidecar and Lyft's launch of unlicensed peer-to-peer ride-sharing in 2012 flooded the supply side and permanently changed the economics of the entire industry.

  • Before peer-to-peer entrants, Uber had strong LTV:CAC economics for both riders and drivers.
  • Peer-to-peer ride-sharing opened supply floodgates, competing away previous gains for both drivers and platforms.
  • This forced Uber and rivals into years of subsidy-fueled competition instead of organic profitability.
#unit economics#Lyft#Sidecar#marketplace dynamics

Story· 9

Story05:30

How an Angry 1889 Fare Dispute Created Taxi Regulation

A wealthy San Franciscan's bad experience with a horse-drawn carriage driver led directly to the city's first taxi licensing law, kicking off a century of transportation regulation.

  • F.S. Chadbourne was overcharged by a horse-drawn carriage driver in 1889 San Francisco and lobbied the city government in response.
  • The resulting ordinance required all drivers to be licensed with a badge matching their vehicle's number.
  • This became the template for a century of city-level taxi regulation.

“All drivers in San Francisco had to be licensed with a badge, and that badge number had to match the vehicles number.”

David Rosenthal · 07:30
#taxi history#regulation#San Francisco
Story29:30

The Mob Warning That Killed 'Seamless Wheels'

Before Seamless became a meal-delivery giant, its founder tried to build a black-car booking service on the side and received an anonymous threat that ended the idea instantly.

  • Seamless founder Jason Finger tried expanding into black-car booking alongside his meal-delivery business.
  • He received an anonymous voicemail threatening him and his family if he continued.
  • He immediately abandoned the idea, illustrating how organized crime controlled the unregulated black-car market for decades.

“Jason we understand you've been pitching a car service to large enterprises in the New York City area. We don't think that would be a…”

David Rosenthal · 31:00
#black car industry#New York#early attempts
Story34:00

James Bond Movies and Nightclubs: Garrett Camp's Origin Idea for Uber

Fresh off selling StumbleUpon to eBay, Garrett Camp combined his frustration hailing cabs with a scene from Casino Royale to sketch the original concept behind Uber.

  • Camp sold StumbleUpon to eBay for $75M and had free time and capital in San Francisco.
  • A scene in Casino Royale where Bond summons his car via phone inspired the idea of tracking a private driver on a map.
  • Camp coined the name 'Uber' from his own slang for 'great,' registering UberCab.com in August 2008.

“Uber, it means great things, it means greatness, and that's what he decides to call this service, Uber.”

David Rosenthal · 38:30
#origin story#Garrett Camp#StumbleUpon
Story49:00

Travis Kalanick's First Startup: Scour, Ovitz, and a $250B Lawsuit

Long before Uber, Travis Kalanick's first company Scour was sued for a quarter-trillion dollars by Hollywood and nearly funded by super-agent Michael Ovitz, forging his combative negotiating style.

  • Scour was a peer-to-peer file-sharing tool for any file type, including movies, built by UCLA dropouts including Kalanick.
  • Michael Ovitz and Ron Burkle signed a term sheet then tried to retrade it, prompting them to sue the company to force the investment through.
  • The MPAA sued Scour for $250 billion, forcing it into bankruptcy and teaching Kalanick to never back down in negotiations.

“What investor sues the company so that they can invest in the company?”

David Rosenthal · 53:00
#Travis Kalanick#Scour#Michael Ovitz
Story1:03:00

The Tweet That Found Uber's First CEO

A vague, all-caps recruiting tweet from Travis Kalanick was answered by a 27-year-old GE employee in Chicago, who became Uber's first CEO.

  • Kalanick tweeted a broad, cryptic job post looking for a 'bizdev killer' for a pre-launch location-based service.
  • Ryan Graves, a GE rotational program employee in Chicago, replied with his email and got the role.
  • Graves moved to San Francisco and became Uber's first CEO before Kalanick took over.

“Looking for number four, entrepreneurial product manager slash bizdev killer for a location based service.”

David Rosenthal · 1:03:00
#Ryan Graves#founding team#recruiting
Story1:09:30

From Rejected Barista Application to Uber's Longest-Tenured Employee

Austin Geidt overcame addiction, got rejected for a barista job, then found Uber's launch tweet and became its fourth employee and eventual global launch lead.

  • Geidt battled a serious drug addiction during college, took years off, and returned to graduate from Berkeley at 25.
  • She applied to Uber's internship after seeing a tweet, having just been rejected for a barista job.
  • She became the successful driver operations manager and later ran Uber's city launch team globally.

“I'm more proud of being sober, and being able to share that with my family means a whole lot more.”

David Rosenthal · 1:11:00
#Austin Geidt#early employees#personal story
Story1:12:00

The 2010 Raid That Made Travis Want to Be CEO

San Francisco regulators raided Uber's office and issued a cease-and-desist order during a board meeting - and the confrontation convinced Kalanick to take over as CEO.

  • City regulators raided Uber's office in October 2010 and demanded it stop operating, treating Ryan Graves as a 'wanted man.'
  • Uber was operating in the state-regulated black-car market, not the city-regulated taxi market, and won the legal fight.
  • The confrontation felt like a 'homecoming' to Kalanick after his Scour experience and pushed him to become CEO.
#regulation#Travis Kalanick#turning point
Story1:44:00

Uber's 2017 Crisis Timeline: Delete Uber to Travis's Ouster

A rapid-fire sequence of scandals in early-mid 2017 - the JFK surge controversy, Susan Fowler's harassment post, the Waymo lawsuit, and more - culminated in Travis Kalanick's resignation.

  • Uber's JFK surge pricing during Trump's travel ban sparked #DeleteUber, partly worsened by Kalanick's seat on a Trump advisory council.
  • Susan Fowler's blog post detailing harassment and retaliation triggered an Eric Holder-led investigation.
  • The Waymo trade-secrets lawsuit, a leaked video of Kalanick berating a driver, and a Seoul escort-bar scandal led to a wave of executive resignations.
#scandal#culture crisis#Travis Kalanick#2017
Story1:56:00

The Board Comment That Ended a TPG Co-Founder's Uber Tenure

At an all-hands meant to address Uber's culture crisis, TPG co-founder David Bonderman made a sexist remark in response to Arianna Huffington and was removed from the board that day.

  • The meeting was called specifically to reassure employees after the Holder report and Susan Fowler revelations.
  • Bonderman made a sexist joke in direct response to Arianna Huffington discussing board diversity.
  • He was removed from the board immediately, symbolizing the need for a full leadership change at Uber.

“Actually what it shows is there's much more likely to be more talking.”

David Rosenthal · 1:56:00
#board governance#culture crisis#David Bonderman

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway2:02:30

Dara Khosrowshahi's Three-Item Turnaround Mandate

When Uber's board hired the Expedia CEO, they gave him a simple but enormous three-part job: fix the culture, stem the losses, and take the company public.

  • Khosrowshahi, an outspoken critic of Trump's immigration policies, was seen as the 'anti-Travis' choice for CEO.
  • The board's mandate was to fix culture, stem losses in core markets, and take the company public.
  • He resolved the Google/Waymo lawsuit and orchestrated a nearly $9B SoftBank-led tender offer to unite shareholders behind him.

“Fix the culture at Uber, two, stem the losses that we've been suffering in these wars all around the world and focus on core markets,…”

David Rosenthal · 2:03:00
#Dara Khosrowshahi#turnaround#leadership transition
Takeaway2:05:30

Uber Prices at the Bottom of Its Range and Opens Down

After rumors of a $120B valuation a year earlier, Uber priced its IPO at $45/share ($82B market cap) and opened trading below that level.

  • Uber's valuation narrative shrank from a rumored $120B to an actual $82B pricing.
  • Shares opened at $42, below the offer price of $45, and continued sliding during the show's recording.
  • The hosts caution that first-day trading is historically a poor predictor of long-term outcome, citing Lyft and Facebook.

“Uber priced its IPO at $45 a share towards the bottom of the range or equal to an $82 billion market cap.”

David Rosenthal · 2:05:30
#IPO pricing#market cap#public debut