Position Near the Opportunity
Build useful capabilities close to markets that have not emerged yet
- Difficulty
- Expert
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 98%
Position Near the Opportunity is a strategic option-building method for markets that do not yet exist. Begin with a durable structural insight, such as computing separating from the viewing device or cars becoming software-defined. Instead of predicting the exact winning product and date, build capabilities adjacent to several possible outcomes. Use intermediate applications to earn revenue, learn operational requirements, and keep the company sustainable. Maintain relationships with emerging users and monitor the signals that convert a zero-billion-dollar market into a real one. When the opportunity arrives, the organization already possesses relevant technology, infrastructure, talent, and customer knowledge. The goal is not clairvoyance; it is being close enough and capable enough to act before competitors can reconfigure themselves.
Origin
Jensen Huang explained that much of his CEO work consists of anticipating where opportunities may appear and positioning Nvidia nearby, as it did with data centers, automotive computing, accelerated computing, and AI.
Core principles
- 01Look around corners instead of waiting for proven demand
- 02Position near several plausible manifestations of an opportunity
- 03Build capabilities that create value before the final market arrives
- 04Use non-consumption as a clue to future demand
- 05Approximate positioning can outperform precise but late forecasting
How to run it
- 1
Find a structural shift
Identify a technological, economic, or behavioral change likely to alter what customers can consume. Focus on durable direction rather than a fashionable product category.
Pro tip Ask which present physical or economic constraint might disappear.
Watch out A trend headline is not necessarily a structural shift.
- 2
Define the emerging need
Describe what customers will need if the shift continues, even if no established budget or market category exists yet. Look especially for current non-consumption.
Pro tip Express the need independently of your preferred product.
Watch out Do not infer demand solely from internal enthusiasm.
- 3
Choose a nearby position
Build technology, relationships, infrastructure, or expertise useful across several plausible versions of the future. Avoid dependence on one exact forecast.
Pro tip Prefer capabilities with value in both intermediate and eventual markets.
Watch out Being conceptually interested in a market is not the same as being operationally close to it.
- 4
Monetize the path
Serve smaller or adjacent use cases that fund continued learning. Treat each product as both a business and preparation for the larger opportunity.
Pro tip Select customers that expose the hardest future requirements.
Watch out A decade-long thesis without intermediate value can exhaust the company.
- 5
Watch for the falling apple
Track technical breakthroughs, customer behavior, ecosystem formation, and cost curves that indicate the market is becoming actionable. Update the company's position as evidence changes.
Pro tip Maintain direct contact with researchers and pioneering customers.
Watch out Do not demand certainty before acting.
- 6
Convert proximity into action
When the opportunity emerges, deploy the accumulated capabilities quickly through products, acquisitions, partnerships, or capacity expansion. Move before distant competitors can catch up.
Pro tip Pre-plan the decisions that likely signals would trigger.
Watch out Proximity has no value if bureaucracy prevents decisive action.
In the wild
Nvidia acted on the insight that computing could be separated from viewing devices. GeForce Now, remote graphics, CUDA-based supercomputing, and related products built data-center capabilities before the AI market demanded them at enormous scale.
→ When AI accelerated, Nvidia already had the systems experience and position needed to serve the opportunity.
Nvidia entered automotive computing when many industry participants doubted that cars should depend on powerful software systems. The company positioned around the expectation that vehicles would become software-defined.
→ Nvidia accumulated automotive capabilities and relationships before the market fully emerged.
Common mistakes
Waiting for a proven market
The strongest positioning advantage disappears when demand, budgets, and competitors are already obvious.
Forecasting too precisely
Requiring the exact product, date, and market structure can prevent investment in broadly useful nearby capabilities.
Ignoring sustainability
A company can be directionally correct and still fail before the opportunity arrives if it cannot monetize intermediate steps.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for durable organizations able to fund capability-building through intermediate products and customers.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for cash-constrained teams that lack a credible path to sustainability during a long market-development period.
From the transcript
“you want to pave the way to Future opportunities you can't wait until the opportunity is sitting in front of you for you to reach…”
“our job as CEO is to look around corners and and anticipate where will opportunity be someday and even if I'm not exactly sure”
From the episode
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang
Jensen Huang